by Rowen Bell, Chicago IL
Sometimes a bidding mishap can reveal a fascinating play problem that might
have gone unnoticed in a more normal contract. This theme is evidenced by the
following hand, played and reported by my long-time partner Christopher Monsour,
who relocated from Chicago to his native Maryland during the pandemic.
East is dealer with neither vulnerable at matchpoints and the North-South hands are as follows:
North South
♠KQJ
♠32
♥AJ74
♥Q962
♦63
♦ –
♣AJ84
♣K1076532
East opens 3D,and it goes Pass-Pass to North. Double from North as a balancing action seems clear here. East passes, South bids 3H, and now West belatedly extends partner’s preempt with a 4D bid.
When this hand was played in an online robot individual event, North was the human and the other players were robots. Most Norths, Christopher included, chose to bid 4H over 4D, which seems like a reasonable matchpoint competitive action. Unfortunately, the robot South interpreted the 4H bid as showing a much stronger hand and launched into Roman Keycard Blackwood with 4NT. North’s response of 5H showed 2 or 5 keycards for hearts, without the queen. The robot read this as 5 keycards rather than 2 and placed the contract in 7H !
Obviously 7H is down immediately on a spade lead. However, suppose West leads the ♦A. On that lead, does this overly ambitious contract have any play?
To get to 13 tricks without taking any tricks in spades, we need 7 clubs, plus 2 diamond ruffs in the closed hand, plus 4 hearts. Also, the third round of trump will need to be played from dummy, since the closed hand will be out of hearts after two ruffs and two rounds of trump.
With a little thought, we can work out a series of things we need in order for this to come to pass. First, West needs to have ♥K tripleton. Second, East’s heart doubleton must include the ♥8. And third, we will need a dummy entry outside of trumps in order to cash the third round of trumps after the two diamond ruffs have been taken. That entry can only be in clubs, so we need West to have at least one of the two outstanding cards in that suit.
Suppose we lead the ♥Q at trick two. If West ducks and the queen holds, we follow with a heart towards dummy’s ♥AJ, and then we ruff a diamond with the closed hand’s last trump. Now we play a club towards dummy, crossing our fingers: If neither West nor East can ruff this trick, then we win in dummy, play dummy’s high trump, and claim.
Things become more interesting if West covers the ♥Q with the ♥K at trick two. We win the ♥A and ruff a diamond back to hand, leaving the ♥9 as the closed hand’s last trump. Now we face a choice between two lines of play, depending on which opponent we think holds the ♥10.
If we think East started with ♥108 doubleton, then we need to overtake the ♥9 with the ♥J, smothering the ♥10; with the ♥8 having previously fallen, dummy’s ♥7 is good. (If West started with ♥K8x, this line fails.)
On the other hand, if we think East started with ♥8x, then we need to plan on running the ♥9. If West covers with the ♥10, we play the ♥J and cash the established ♥7; if West ducks, we cross to dummy with a club to cash the ten. (If West started with ♥K108, this line fails.)
If West leads a diamond and then covers the ♥Q at trick two, and East follows suit with the ♥8, which East heart holding should we play for: ♥108, or ♥8x ? That’s a complicated question. On the one hand, it is twice as likely that East started with ♥8x as it is that he started with ♥108, since there are two ways East could hold 8x (85 or 83). On the other hand, how likely is it that East would play the ♥8 on the first round of trumps from ♥8x? Most defenders would play low without giving the position much thought, and few defenders would recognize that playing an in-tempo ♥8 from ♥8x might give declarer a losing option in trumps. On balance, if the ♥8 appears on the first round of trumps, then it is probably best to play for a doubleton ♥108.
All of the analysis above has assumed that West led the ♦A. However, at the table, the robot West did not lead either a spade or a diamond, but instead led the ♣Q.
How does the club lead impact things? Well, on a double-dummy basis, the club lead is fatal: If the defenders are perfect, there is no lie of the cards on which South can make 7H after a club lead. Even if the opening lead isn’t ruffed, the club lead forces declarer to use up a vital dummy entry before it is needed.
Consider the play after a club lead if East started with ♥8x. Declarer wins the club in dummy, ruffs a diamond, and advances the ♥Q. West covers; declarer wins the ♥A, ruffs another diamond, and advances the ♥9. But now, West can defeat the contract by refusing to cover! If West ducks the ♥9, there is no way declarer can get to dummy to cash the ♥J: One round of clubs having already been played, West can ruff declarer’s club lead with the ♥10 to defeat the contract.
Nevertheless, declarer has a faint hope: If East started with ♥108 doubleton, then the defense could easily get the position wrong and allow declarer to make.
As before, suppose declarer wins the club in dummy, ruffs a diamond, and advances the ♥Q. But now assume that East’s hearts are ♥108 doubleton. If West covers the ♥Q, then declarer will make! We win the ♥A, ruff a second diamond, play the closed hand’s last heart to dummy’s ♥J, cash the good ♥7 and claim.
To beat the contract, West needs to refuse to cover the ♥Q. This is counter-intuitive; we saw above that on a diamond lead, it was necessary for West to cover the ♥Q to give declarer a choice between two different lines of play if East follows with the ♥8. But after a club lead, West's duck with the ♥K gives declarer an insoluble problem. While declarer can continue with a heart to the ♥J, after that, declarer can’t simply cash the ♥A because he first needs to get a second diamond ruff in his hand. Once the ruff has been taken, declarer tries to re-enter dummy with a club, but West ruffs with the ♥K.
The full hand:
♠KQJ
♥AJ74
♦63
♣AJ84
♠A10976 ♠854
♥K53 ♥108
♦A1074 ♦KQJ9852
♣Q ♣9
♠32
♥Q962
♦ –
♣K1076532
At the table, about two-thirds of the field in the online robot individual field ended up in this awful 7H contract and received the club lead. In this format, the human Norths were automatically put into the South seat to declare. Christopher found the best line of play, which was to play East for ♥108 doubleton and try to induce West to waste the ♥K prematurely by covering the ♥Q on the first round of hearts. The robot West did indeed cover, and Christopher was the only person in the field to bring 7H home. Well done!